The government has now confirmed the next Budget will take place on 26 November

The government has now confirmed the next Budget will take place on 26 November, a full month later than when it was staged last year.

At that time, there was plenty of criticism centred around why, having just won a general election, it took so long for a Budget to be presented. Many believed the delay added to uncertainty and, when the announcements finally arrived, there was not a lot to be positive about. A year on, it feels like the government is already repeating some of the same mistakes.

For example, the narrative, much like last time, is already dominated by suggestions that the government needs to find new ways of filling yet another “public finance blackhole”. In order to tackle this, Treasury officials/advisers appear to have spent most of the summer leaking potential policies to test reactions, and nowhere has this been more prominent than in the property sector. The consequences of such an approach could be extremely damaging.

Those of us who work in this market know that property transactions thrive on certainty. If buyers and sellers are confident about the financial requirements of a purchase, they can plan accordingly.

But when that certainty is replaced by conjecture, people inevitably sit on their hands. Why commit now if the cost of buying a home could fundamentally change in a matter of three months? As a result, we risk a quarter of stasis in the market – as I write, it’s 84 days to the Budget announcement – all because policymakers believe that floating ideas through the press is an acceptable way to trial policies.

We do not have to look too far back to see the impact such speculation can have. In the pensions space last year, rumours spread that the government might cut the percentage of tax-free cash that could be drawn down. There was a subsequent rush to take money out before the supposed changes were introduced. When the rumoured reform never came, many scrambled to put funds back into their pensions, having needlessly created tax and planning complications.

This time around, the leaks and whispers relate to stamp duty and property taxation. Possible abolition of stamp duty altogether, a replacement seller’s tax on properties over £500,000, a national annual ‘mansion tax’, or even charging National Insurance on rental income – all have been suggested. None are confirmed.

All could be damaging to market activity between now and 26 November. Even the chance of such measures happening could be more than enough to make prospective buyers and sellers pause. After all, who wants to find themselves needlessly paying thousands more by acting at the wrong moment?

And yet, the government seems blind to the lessons of the past. In Westminster, vacuums of information are always filled with gossip and rumour. That is exactly what we can expect more of in the weeks leading up to Budget Day. Unfortunately, gossip and rumour rarely help the property market function smoothly. Instead, they breed confusion, uncertainty, and inertia.

Late Budget has created housing market uncertainty
This is no small matter for our sector. The housing market is one of the biggest contributors to UK GDP. Advisers, brokers, lenders, estate agents, conveyancers – all are directly impacted by the level of activity, and all are left to deal with the consequences of misplaced speculation. It should go without saying that the process of policymaking for such a vital sector of the economy deserves far more care and attention than this.

What will be the potential impact on activity in the weeks ahead? Clients who might otherwise have pressed ahead with a purchase may delay. Those who had intended to put their home on the market may wait. Transactions that could have gone through this autumn may now be put on hold until 2026, purely because of political manoeuvring.

And in the weeks leading up to 26 November, the Chancellor will face increased pressure not just to present a balanced fiscal package, but to offer carrots to property stakeholders who have been left dangling for months.

That might mean a new incarnation of Help to Buy, or fresh incentives for first-time buyers. It might mean announcing a serious commitment to building more homes, or policies to unlock the potential of empty ones. One way or another, something will need to be offered to make up for the lost time and lost confidence.

This entire episode feels both unnecessary and avoidable. By choosing a later Budget date and failing to control the narrative, the government has created uncertainty at precisely the wrong time.

A functioning housing market does not need constant speculation about radical changes. It needs clarity and certainty, so those making life’s biggest financial decisions can do so on a sound footing.

Instead, we are now likely to be left with nearly three months of speculation. For a sector that thrives on activity, this could be a long autumn indeed.