Latest News

  • Home /
  • Latest News

Prudential - T&IO Market Updates

31 July 2020
Market and Economic review for week ending 24 July 2020

Current tactical positioning

In funds where we implement TAA positions (excluding PruFunds), we maintain an overweight stance in high yield credit owing to the favourable technical environment, where major central banks continue to use credit markets to provide stimulus to the real economy. At present, we retain a neutral view on equities and continue to follow the trajectory of the virus and the associated lockdown measures. The portfolio managers also continue to hold a small position in UK REITs across all of the Prudential Risk Managed Active and Risk Managed Passive portfolios.

Market and Economic review

Positive news flow early in the week regarding the European Recovery Fund and the safety of a number of COVID-19 vaccine frontrunners did little to boost equity markets and by Friday there was a distinct risk off tone with the Stoxx 600 opening down 1.6%, US equity futures –0.8% and the FTSE 100 down 3% on the week, triggered by a mix of Sino-US tensions and concerns the US economic recovery is stalling. Assets thought to exhibit a correlation to inflation reached all-time highs, in response to the negative real yields available on US government bonds. After a period of underperformance, emerging market equities outperformed developed markets this week, which themselves were mostly led upward by the US. In bond markets, US, UK and German yields fell, driven in part by concerns over economic growth and implications for long-term interest rates. The spread between perceived riskier Eurozone bond markets (such as Italy) and Germany tightened thanks to confirmation of the European Recovery Fund. European high yield tightened over 15bps from last week.

Alongside a characteristic volte face on the dangers of the Coronavirus and its potential impact on the US economy (contributing to weakness in the US dollar), President Trump was also instrumental in escalating geopolitical tensions with China this week. Citing spying concerns around research into a Coronavirus vaccine, the US ordered China to close its consulate in Houston. This triggered a swift riposte from Beijing, calling the move a significant violation of “international law and basic norms of international relations” and retaliated by ordering the closure of the US consulate in Chengdu. Earlier in the week, President Trump signed legislation giving his administration additional powers to sanction Chinese officials following the decision by China to impose a national security law on Hong Kong, in addition to an order that restricted special privileges previously afforded to the financial centre. Across the pond, UK MPs faced criticism for failing to properly investigate allegations of election interference by Russia. As the week progressed this turbulent geopolitical back drop, combined with the narrative of a V-shaped economic recovery looking ever more fanciful, resulted in a distinct change in sentiment from the buoyant feel of previous weeks.

A significant development occurred in the Eurozone this week, following a weekend packed with negotiations. The EU agreed a €750bn Recovery Fund to boost the economy and stimulate investment, with €360bn in low interest loans and €390bn of grants. Considerable compromises were needed to agree the package, including increases in EU contribution rebates to several members as well as a reduction in the fund’s size. Nevertheless, it represents a galvanisation of the European project and will result in the ECB becoming a material issuer in bond markets. The structural implications are still embryonic, but it could result in the ECB becoming the new Eurozone benchmark bond, replacing Germany. In a post-Brexit world it also represents a philosophical renewal of the single currency, bringing a level of fiscal integration that could help in future crises.

This week the UK budget deficit stood at £35.5bn in June alone, leaving UK debt at 99.6% of GDP. The Office for Budget Responsibility forecast a deficit of £370bn for the year (the highest level since WW2). More positive UK data included retail sales which rose 13.9% in June as COVID-19 restrictions eased further. US mortgage applications were down to 4.1% from 5.1% last week while existing home sales increased 20% from May to June, benefitting from a broader reopening of the economy and buyers taking advantage of low mortgage rates. US initial jobless claims rose this week to 1.4m marking the first increase since March. Along with total US infections now in excess of 3.9m, there are concerns for what impact these numbers mean for the economic recovery.

The Eurozone underlying inflation rate slowed in June compared to May, rising 1.1% compared to 1.2% last month and remaining some way short of the ECB’s 2% longer-term target. US economic data showed some signs of deceleration in output, some of which likely relates to base effects following the sharp rebound following March and April’s standstill in activity, but potentially also reflects the US’ struggles to fully reopen for business. Hard data such as building permits rose 2.1% compared to a 14.1% increase in May. On the positive side, June saw 1.186m housing starts compared to a forecast of 1.169m alongside upward revisions to the prior month.

Forward looking data from the Michigan Sentiment Index fell from 78.1 to 73.2 in July, short of expectations of continued expansion to 79.0, putting the sustainability of the upswing at risk. A number of temporary benefits programmes designed to support the US economy during the lockdown expire at the end of July. Until recently the Republicans have been against further support, believing it disincentivises work, but have now said they will consider extending unemployment support through to December.

Unilever reported strong sales of hand soap and ice cream which led to underlying sales beating expectations, resulting in a sharp increase in the share price on Thursday. Daimler also fared better than expected with a positive free cash flow for 2020 and demand gradually recovering, particularly in Asian markets.

Outlook

In the week ahead data releases include the Fed funds target rate decision, US consumer confidence, US durable goods orders, Eurozone M3 money supply, IFO German business climate, UK mortgage approvals, Eurozone unemployment data, China manufacturing PMI and a slew of US earnings including Apple, Google, Amazon.

 

30 December 2024

An evolving industrial landscape: post-election insights from the US


30 December 2024

The outlook for 2025


10 December 2024

Beyond the Budget – Unpacking IHT changes for your clients


4 December 2024

Triple Point Venture VCT - Early bird discount extended


3 December 2024

A Postcard from Boston: Onshoring, AI and the regulation of water


3 December 2024

The second Nucleus UK Retirement Confidence Index


25 November 2024

Investing alongside science to deliver a sustainable world


11 November 2024

Triple Point - What Budget changes to Business Relief mean for clients


4 November 2024

Edwards Lifesciences: shaping the future of cardiac care


28 October 2024

Gene therapy is set to change the face of medicine


22 October 2024

What China’s economic stimulus measures could mean for investors


16 October 2024

Triple Point - Venture VCT announces 2p tax-free dividend


7 October 2024

Triple Point - VCTs: a powerful way to help clients pay less income tax


2 October 2024

The next smart move for your clients


26 September 2024

Puma VCT 13 launches new £50m fundraise


24 September 2024

3 steps advisers can take to close the gender pension gap


19 September 2024

Puma Investments- Launches Puma AIM VCT


18 September 2024

M&G Wealth - Six ways to keep clients invested for long-term success


10 September 2024

M&G Wealth - Dash to cash: why it pays to think longer-term with your client’s money


6 September 2024

Join the Defaqto Future of Advice conference


2 September 2024

Triple Point - Understanding Venture Capital Trusts (VCTs)


28 August 2024

M&G Wealth - Keeping it smooth since 2004


19 August 2024

Prudential - Cost reductions and changes to our Strategic Asset Allocation


15 August 2024

Liontrust - Building a sustainable future with social housing


15 August 2024

Puma Investments - Join our CPD webinar: Closing the gaps: IHT and Estate planning featuring Tony Wickenden


7 August 2024

Liontrust - Plugging into the energy transition


6 August 2024

Defaqto - The Future of Advice - The Defaqto Adviser Conference


26 July 2024

Hello Kitty: A big cat in the investment universe?


24 July 2024

Liontrust – A postcard from Japan: enabling the sustainable transition


18 July 2024

Liontrust - Does a brighter future for housebuilding lie ahead?


16 July 2024

Triple Point – Holistic Estate Planning Strategy for Clients


8 July 2024

Triple Point – Join our CPD webinar: helping investors plan for big life events


1 July 2024

Intergenerational wealth planning for difficult times


24 June 2024

Liontrust Sustainable Investment: Annual Review 2023


19 June 2024

Investing in the energy transition


18 June 2024

Triple Point is partnering with ESG Accord to host a webinar: "A Practical Guide to SDR and Investment Labels for Advisers."


17 June 2024

Latest PruFund monthly investment updates


13 June 2024

Defaqto MPS Comparator: the UK's only accurate MPS performance tool


12 June 2024

Hear about Triple Point Venture VCT - 18th June 2024


6 June 2024

The Nucleus Retirement Confidence Index


24 May 2024

Join us for our Breakfast Briefing with Foresight! June 4th at 9:30am


17 May 2024

Looking forward with optimism


8 May 2024

The retirement income advice red paper


8 May 2024

Liontrust Views: Why smaller can be beautiful for US equities


7 May 2024

CPD Horizon Series: Tax planning for life’s key events


18 April 2024

Liontrust: Opportunities from secular growth trends


15 April 2024

Defaqto Roadshow - The challenges and opportunities of pursuing Income


11 April 2024

Liontrust: US small caps are overlooked and undervalued


4 April 2024

Q1 2024 Rebalance – we think the backdrop is good for stocks


21 March 2024

25 years of ISAs: a quarter of a century of tax-efficient savings and investing


4 March 2024

Stepping out of cash needn’t be daunting


26 February 2024

Managing lifetime wealth – trends in the UK retirement advice industry


23 February 2024

Empowering advice for women in finance


14 February 2024

Tech Matters is here!


5 February 2024

Defaqto upcoming event – Engage webinar 22nd February


1 February 2024

The gender divide in retirement confidence


30 January 2024

SDGs in focus: climate and nature


26 January 2024

Tax year end prep. We’re here to help.